Few glimmers of hope

The area around Lake Chad

It is a predicted catastrophe we now see unfolding in several countries in the Sahel belt. 

Weak government and corruption have had dramatic consequences in the region, where large areas have had little governmental presence creating space for conflict and organised crime.

Marginalisation of ethnic groups, rapid population growth, and increased tension between farmers and nomads all contribute to increasing conflict. These factors combined have resulted in millions of people caught in a severe humanitarian disaster, and have also created good conditions for terrorist groups to gain a foothold.

Increased interest

A worsening humanitarian crisis, the surge of different terrorist organisations, and the challenges tied to the mixed flows of migrants and refugees through the Sahara over the last couple of years, have resulted in increased Western interest in alleviating the situation.

In February 2017, a large conference was held in Oslo where the focus was the need for humanitarian aid to the local population around Lake Chad, At the conference countries pledged to give 30 percent of the amount needed.

Increased aid budgets are vital, but in the long run, national governments, supported by the international community, must deal with the underlying causes to their problems. Coordination between humanitarian aid and long-term support will therefore be important in the years to come.

El Niño

Through 2015, 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the weather phenomenon El Niño has caused drought in 17 African countries. The Horn of Africa, Eastern Africa and areas further south on the continent have been hit the hardest. Nomads can no longer support themselves as their cattle die, farmers are unable to produce enough food to feed their families, and food prices rise in the cities.

Between November 2016 and March 2017, 438,000 Somalians were forced to leave their homes because of the drought. In the spring of 2017, more than six million people – half the country's population – suffered from a critical lack of food. The drought also increases the risk of diseases breaking out. Lack of clean water forces people to drink dirty water, therefore the risk of a cholera epidemic is high.

In many places, the effect of El Niño only adds to other challenges. Armed conflict intensifies the humanitarian crisis, and makes it difficult to reach the victims.

A crisis in Africa's newest state

In South Sudan, political power struggle has led the country into a brutal civil war between ethnic groups. Persecution and cruel assaults on the local population have amplified the consequences of drought and failed crops. It is particularly worrying that the ethnic dimensions of the conflict have become increasingly central over the past year.

In March 2017, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR) stated that the crisis in South Sudan was the fastest growing crisis in the world. Since the outbreak of the civil war in December 2013, more than 1.8 million people have fled to neighbouring countries Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan. In addition, almost two million people are internally displaced within South Sudan.

Terrorist groups

The presence of extremist Islamic groups in Northern Africa and the Sahel region has alarmed Europe. The groups constitute a direct threat to Europe through terrorist attacks on European soil, but primarily, they are a destabilising presence in vulnerable African states.

Terrorist organisations constitute both a political and a socioeconomic challenge. If we are unable to do something about the underlying causes why al-Qaeda in the Maghreb and their allies have been able to take hold and grow in Mali, Niger, Libya, Chad and some West-African countries, we will not be successful in defeating them. The same is true for Boko Haram in Nigeria, who have declared loyalty to Islamic State group, and for al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Counteracting poor government, corruption, the marginalisation of ethnic groups and extreme poverty, is the best way to fight terrorism. Extremist groups recruit by playing into the discontent among marginalised groups and by targeting youth with little hope for the future. An increase in organised crime provides economic grounds. The people, drugs, guns and diamonds smuggled through the Sahara are taxed by several armed groups on the way through. Criminal networks, terrorist organisations, corrupt police and politicians feed off each other, making it difficult to stop this traffic. 

Invest more in development

Morocco was the first African country that received economic support in return for tightening border controls. In 2016, the EU partnered with several countries in the Sahel belt, in agreements worth a total of around one billion euros. The growing European interest in the countries south of Sudan is based on fear of terrorism and increased numbers of migrants and refugees heading for Europe. In 2016 alone, 350,000 people – most of these from West-Africa – travelled through Agadez in Niger, heading for Libya or Algeria.

In February 2017, European leaders met in Malta to discuss human trafficking and legal migration. Prior to the meeting, Italy had donated 200 million euros to the transit countries Niger, Libya and Tunisia. The money was earmarked improved border control, and stopping migrants from reaching European shores. Among other things, the meeting resulted in a decision to strengthen the Libyan coast guard in order to reduce movement into Europe.

On 28 February 2017, UNICEF published a report concluding that Libya is one of the worst countries for child refugees. The report details extensive violence towards children and women travelling from northern Africa to Europe. Almost one third of all reported assaults take place in Libya. The country has become one of the main transit countries for women being sold into the European sex industry.

European safety measures do not ensure safety for the most vulnerable, migrants and refugees, who are left to their own fates. The Libyan coast guard keeps people from drowning, but returning thousands of people to a Libya in chaos is a very short-sighted solution.

A regional perspective

In Sahel, West-Africa and parts of northern Africa, communities have always been mobile. People and cattle have wandered, and goods have been transported across borders. This has been at the heart of their economic development.

When discussing development within this part of Africa, the focus has to be regional, instead of on a state level. Building roads and infrastructure to better integrate the African states would in the long run yield very positive results, both for Europe and the populations south of Sahara.

Côte d'Ivoire lies on the border of the poor Sahel Belt. If the country's democratically elected president can stabilise the situation, this will also benefit its poor neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso. These countries do not have a coast line, and for them, Côte d'Ivoire is a vital transport route for export and import.

This shows how prosperity in one country quickly can have great regional importance. Correspondingly, chaos in one country can have great negative regional consequences. The chaotic situation is Libya made the 2012 uprising in northern Mali possible, and has also had great humanitarian consequences for migrants and refugees travelling through the Sahara. It has also led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Libyans within their own country.

Great Lakes

The situation in the Great Lakes region has worsened over the past two years. People from this area have since the 1970s lived through a painful period of violence, genocides and several great displacement crises. In April 2015, Burundian president Pierre Nkurunziza decided to run for a third term as president despite this being in violation of the constitution The opposition boycotted the election. Hundreds of people have been killed, tortured, raped, and many have disappeared in the ensuing violence.

Since 2015, more than 410,000 Burundians have fled to neighbouring countries. Tanzania has taken in most of them – around 240,000. Many of these refugees have fled to Tanzania previously, which means that the threshold for returning to Burundi could be higher. In January 2017, Tanzania changed their legislation with regards to refugees from Burundi: They are no longer automatically granted asylum. This has dramatically reduced the number of refugees crossing the border from Burundi. Also, the Tanzanian government is restrictive when it comes to assigning land for camps.

Political unrest

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) we see many of the same tendencies. Political opponents are silenced through violence. Human rights organisations are evicted from the country, The mandate of DRC's president, Joseph Kabila, ended in December 2016, but there is no indication that he will step down. According to the constitution, Kabila was supposed to hold new elections 1 October 2016, at the latest. This did not happen, and as a result, political unrest erupted in the capital Kinshasa. Kabila says that the country does not have the resources to hold an election. In the beginning of 2017, an agreement was reached with the opposition, which entails a division of powers until elections can be held. However, the deal is frail, and the protests against president Kabila become more and more frequent.

If DRC follows the same path as Burundi, we will see a massive crisis in the Great Lakes region. This might lead to renewed, large flows of refugees to Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda.

Large host communities

The majority of refugees in Africa seek protection with host communities inside their own country, or in neighbouring countries which are often as poor as the country they fled from. Several of the poorest countries in the world, such as Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Sudan, host hundreds of thousands of refugees from neighbouring countries.

There is much variation in how refugees are treated. For years, Uganda has been recognised for its hospitality towards refugees. In Uganda, refugees have the right to travel, and the right to work and establish their own business. Refugees are also given access to land where they can grow some of the food they need.

Over the last months Uganda has become the African country that receives the most refugees. Ever since the conflict in South Sudan escalated in July 2016, more than 2,100 refugees have crossed into Uganda every day. In addition, Uganda is a safe space for refugees from several other countries in the region, including DRC and Burundi. As of May 2017, more than 1.2 million refugees resided in Uganda.

After Uganda, Ethiopia is the African country that hosts the most refugees – 800,000. The country is known for its hospitality towards refugees. Almost half of the refugees there – 365,000 – come from South Sudan. Ethiopia has for a long time been one of the more stable countries in the Horn of Africa, but protests against the government in 2016 led to a long-term state of emergency and the country has been criticised for human rights violations.

Kenya has a long history as a host nation for refugees, mostly Somalians. The camps in Dadaab were opened in 1991, and they have at times housed almost half a million people. It has, however, become more difficult to seek refuge in Kenya. The government wants to close down Dadaab, and return the Somalian refugees. However, drought, hunger and poor security in their home country cause many Somalians to fear return.

Kenya has pledged to allow the refugees themselves to decide when to return. Still, there is a great risk that many in Dadaab will feel pressured to go home. Since many areas still are not secure, returnees may end up as internally displaced. 

Since year 2000, South Africa has been one of the countries in the world receiving the most asylum seekers, but well below ten per cent of them receive status as refugees.

Weak economic growth

The economic situation in Africa varies between the countries. Nevertheless, the general economic development is an important indicator in assessing the overall situation.

African economic growth almost halved in 2015. Negative growth continued through 2016. According to the World Economic Forum, growth in 2017 will be well under five percent, which has been the average over the past ten years. Causes range from decreased demand and lower prices on goods, to climate change and considerable security challenges. In 2016, economic growth in Nigeria, a country with great humanitarian challenges, was at its lowest for 25 years. This was caused by low oil prices and attacks targeting the country's oil installations.

Some also fear the return of the debt crisis that hit many African countries in the 1980's. Lower prices for natural resources result in lower incomes, at the same time as low interest rates have encouraged people to take on large loans.