10 challenges

1. We must recognize the facts

The humanitarian sector must recognize the facts: Climate change and disasters are huge and increasingly potent drivers of displacement.

The sector must also stop considering those displaced by natural hazards as something other than the “traditional” displaced people fleeing bullets and bombs. Essentially, their needs are the same.
More people are actually displaced by disasters than by war and conflict each year. Although developing countries are hardest hit, disaster displacement also happens in the industrialized world.

The humanitarian sector must also recognize that slow-onset disasters in the wake of climate change, such as recurring droughts that slowly deplete the soil until it is rendered infertile, will probably cause greater displacement in the future.

Last, but not least, we must rid ourselves of the notion that disaster displacement is something temporary. The Internal Development Monitoring Centre – in its Global Estimates 2015 report – has for the first time analysed displacement over time, rather than just presenting data on newly displaced people in a given year. The report documents that disaster displacement is often protracted.

It is high time that the humanitarian sector adjusts its thinking, its programmes, and its policies to include the climate and disaster displaced – on equal terms to those displaced by war and conflict.

2. We must recognize that people rarely flee for just one reason

Our collective understanding of displacement used to be clear and defined. People fled bullets, bombs and persecution in the wake of conflict and rogue regimes. Period. It was a nicely boxed concept.

However, today’s world is far more complex. People leave their homes for a wide range of – often – converging reasons. Climate change and disasters are increasingly drivers of forced displacement, which often coincide with or are aggravated by other drivers, such as war and conflict.

Added to the muddled mix of reasons is the time-old driver of voluntary migration: the search for better opportunities in life.
So, we are not only talking about a “mixed flow” of economic migrants and displaced people with internationally recognized protection needs. Each individual in “the flow” might have a host of reasons for fleeing their home. They rarely flee for one reason alone.

Thus trying to determine their needs and rights, we must dig deeper. For instance, the main reason for fleeing stated by an individual might not give him or her the right to protection under existing international law or regional and national instruments. However, converging reasons might.

3. We must find out who are the displaced

In most cases, we only know the number of people affected after a disaster. Governments, humanitarian organisations or UN agencies rarely collect data on how many of them have become displaced.

Identifying the displaced is important, as they may have other needs than those who are ‘merely’ affected – especially in situations where displacement is protracted or return impossible.

Displaced people might for instance need help to recover personal documentation – such as identity papers, property deeds or education diplomas – or they might need access to education and health services while on the run.

We also need to identify vulnerable groups – children, older people, the disabled etc. Only when we know who are the displaced, will we be able to tailor the right assistance.

The total number of people displaced by climate change or disasters is actually unknown. Since 2008, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has monitored and collected data in the wake of sudden-onset disasters. However, we know little about how many flee slow-onset disasters – that evolve over time, changing the natural environment to a point where people loose their livelihoods or traditional way of life.

4. We must prevent displacement

Traditionally, the humanitarian focus has been on relief after a disaster has struck. As the floods and storms, mudslides and earthquakes have swept lives and livelihoods away, the national and international humanitarian sector has come to the rescue.

When it comes to disaster displacement, however, the most efficient assistance we can give is to prevent that people have to flee in the first place.
We are not just talking about the big issue of reversing the trend of climate change, but the implementation of a broad spectrum of measures to reduce the impact of a disaster on people’s lives and to adjust to changing circumstances.

The technical term is Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The concept is not new, but has traditionally been focused on reducing deaths and economic loss. Now, reducing the risk of displacement must be explicitly included.

Measures range from developing flood resistant crops to building houses that can withstand a storm. Measures can also include planned relocation or voluntary migration, in order to avoid people having to flee head over heal.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 adopted in March 2015 is a good start. Its predecessor, the Hygo Framework for Action, only made passing reference to displacement issues. In the new framework – which according to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon represents the “first step of our journey to a new future” – displacement is a well positioned.

A huge remaining question is how to finance DRR. Governments and donors must reassess their thinking, and put money into prevention – not just relief.

5. We must compile better data and analyse risks

Modern meteorological models can forecast the weather increasingly accurate and historical information tells us a lot about where disasters are most likely to strike.
In order to provide effective early warning and early action systems the humanitarian sector, national authorities and regional institutions need to use available data to predict where the next disaster will strike and to analyse the displacement risk, in order to secure advance financing, prepare a targeted response and prioritize resources – instead of mobilizing after the disaster has happened.

Apart from being able to act quicker and more targeted, this will enable the humanitarian sector to adhere to the principle of local involvement to a greater extent.

To be able to prepare, we need better data about the displaced. “A disasters data revolution is needed”, states the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in its recommendations for the post-2015 international policy framework.

“Access to information is critical to successful disaster risk management. You cannot manage what you cannot measure,” Margareta Wahlström has stated on numerous occasions. Wahlström is the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

For instance, there is no system in place to monitor disaster displacement over time. The only figures available are annual numbers of newly displaced. Thus, we know little about protracted disaster displacement.

The international community must establish a common framework for the collection of disaster displacement data, and governments and their partners must systematically collect and report relevant data.

Special attention should be paid to collecting data disaggregated by gender, age, specific vulnerabilities and location, and to monitoring the situation of people caught in long lasting or chronic displacement situations.

A huge remaining question is how to finance DDR. Governments and donors must reassess their thinking, and put money into prevention - not just relief.

6. We must prevent people becoming poorer

“Disasters, climate change and development are inextricably linked: not only do disasters disproportionally affect the poorest and most marginalised people, but also they exacerbate vulnerabilities and economic growth. ‘Natural’ disasters can reverse years of development gains, and threaten efforts to eliminate poverty by 2030”, states the Overseas Development Institute” in its 2014 report on recommendations for the post-2015 international policy agenda.

This is even truer when disasters lead to displacement. We must ensure that displacement in the wake of climate change and disasters does not cause people to fall back into poverty, reversing developmental gains.

However, we should not be content just to make sure they get back to ‘square one’. We must ensure that people benefit from developmental progress also while being displaced. Bridges need to be built between longterm development and humanitarian aid, merging the gap between these two sectors.

This is particularly important when people are displaced for a long time. It is expected that climate and disaster induced displacement will become increasingly protracted, as repeated extreme weather events will make it harder and harder to return and resume livelihoods in affected areas.

7. We must ensure formal protection

Many of those displaced by disasters will have to cross an international border to find safety. If they do, they are on their own. Currently, they have no rights to protection or assistance, let alone durable solutions.

That needs to change, but not through amending the 1951 UN Refugee Convention – which caters to those fleeing conflict and rouge regimes, and where persecution is a central notion. This is not applicable to disaster displacement.

In addition, many believe it is best not to rock that particular boat, as the Convention is already under pressure and any tampering might only result in an erosion of existing rights. Thus, adjusting the Refugee Convention to accommodate a new and potentially large group of people in need of protection has never been a viable option.

The will lacking on an international level, however, can be found on a regional level – where the urgency is more tangible and a neighbourly spirit exists. The most promising effort in the past couple of years has been The Nansen Initiative – initiated by the Norwegian and Swiss governments in 2012.

Through a series of consultations in affected regions, The Nansen Initiative has aimed to build consensus on what each region is facing and identify possible solutions. Rather than inventing the wheel all over, they have sought to build upon and strengthen existing laws and mechanisms, taking varying local priorities into account.

The result is a useful “toolbox” of policy options – such as bilateral and regional arrangements for free movement of people, temporary humanitarian visas and work permits. As the current Nansen Initiative is coming to an end, the priority must now be to ensure that the participating countries make appropriate elements of the “toolbox” into actual law and practice.

The regional process has so far been conducted outside the framework of the UN. Walter Kälin, Envoy of the Chairmanship of the Nansen Initiative, has stated that the continued process must become UN-led at some point.

8. We must ensure protection in practice

We need to safeguard that any agreed protection mechanisms become real life politics, and not just paper exercises – which is even harder when legally binding measures are not on the horizon, only voluntary agreements.

One way is to include protection of displaced people specifically in National Adaptation Plans in affected countries. These plans are some of the most important documents up for discussions between the parties of the climate convention in Paris in December (COP21). The plans are defined by each nation them selves, but will form the central commitment to which they will be held accountable.

We must also make sure that states make full use of the existing regional and national legal mechanisms and practices, as identified by the Nansen Initiative.

The current talks on protection mechanisms are centred in the most affected countries and regions in the global south. However, some will travel further than to their immediate neighbours. Thus, the Western world must also scrutinize their asylum procedures, and find ways to join the efforts to protect those fleeing climate change and disasters – within the existing legal boundaries.

To ensure protection in practice, humanitarian actors must also recognize and address the protection needs of those displaced by disasters – by including protection in all planning, capacity building and programming.

9. We must commit

International agreements guide our common efforts to improve people’s lives. In 2015, several important policy processes will culminate, setting the pace for the next couple of decades.

It is vital that the international community commits – preferably legally – to take action, and that the commitments include the plight of those displaced by disasters and climate change.

The first process culminated in March, 187 countries endorsed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 – staking out the course for how the world should identify risks, implement measures and thus reduce the impact on people’s lives when disasters strikes. For the first time, displacement is well positioned.

In September, the UN will adopt new Sustainable Development Goals – defining targets to be met by 2030. The new goals will replace the Millennium Development Goals, which have guided efforts since 2000. Disappointingly, the draft does not include a specific indicator on displacement – against which countries will be measured – but some sections touch on displacement.

In December the parties to the climate convention meet again in Paris for the COP21 summit – to agree on a new legally binding climate agreement. The main flaw with the current proposal is that it addresses displacement exclusively as an issue of ‘loss and damage’ and ignores the fact that there are many ways in which the risk of it can be reduced through adaptation measures that prevent displacement from happening in the first place.

10. We must work together

“Everything is connected to everything”, the former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland is famous for saying – after she inspired and led the first ever “climate summit” in Rio in 1992. The phrase rings truer than ever.
The fact that climate and disaster displacement is so closely linked to a host of environmental and developmental issues makes cooperation across sectors, fields and borders vital.

First of all, the climate experts and the humanitarian sector must communicate more, acknowledging the linkages between their agendas and establishing common ground. By joining forces, creating a space where very different mind-sets can meet, new solutions may emerge.

This is equally true within the humanitarian sector itself. The experts on humanitarian disaster relief must join forces with the experts on displacement. There is no need to invent the wheel all over, but rather integrate classic displacement knowledge with classic disaster knowledge.